Jon Sumrall

The aircraft is heading SSE at 298 kt, 16900 ft, with a track of 157.73°. Among candidate airports, KTPA is the most aligned (Δhdg 14°, 111 nm) and is a recurring destination per the briefing ('dense short hops to ... Tampa'). The distance and speed yield an ETA of ~22 minutes, consistent with a short in-state recruiting flight. South Florida airports (KMIA, KFLL) are also aligned but farther; they serve as plausible alternates if the flight continues beyond Tampa. Past predictions show occasional misses, but this route aligns well with the geometry and the subject's typical pattern.